The National Hurricane Center has upgraded a low-pressure system in the northeastern Gulf of America to Tropical Depression Two, following signs that the disturbance has developed a well-defined low-level circulation.
Forecasters say the system remains broad and somewhat disorganized, with patchy thunderstorms caused by dry air wrapping into the circulation. Despite those limitations, persistent thunderstorm activity near the center and in surrounding rainbands prompted the designation as a tropical depression. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 30 mph (25 knots), with a minimum central pressure of 1011 millibars.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, providing forecasters with additional data on its structure and intensity.
As of the latest advisory, the depression is moving slowly to the north-northwest at about 3 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to continue drifting northwest through Monday night before turning west or west-northwest later in the week as high pressure builds across the southern United States.
The current forecast brings the system near the Florida Panhandle over the next day or two, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Forecasters say gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm before reaching the Florida Panhandle.
Beyond that point, the system’s future strength remains uncertain. Any additional intensification will depend largely on how much time the center remains over the warm waters of the Gulf versus interacting with land.
Residents along the Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, are urged to closely monitor the system’s progress. The National Hurricane Center says tropical storm watches could be required for portions of those states within the next 24 to 48 hours.
In addition to the threat of gusty winds, heavy rainfall is expected to create the potential for flash flooding through Thursday. The greatest flood risk extends from western Florida across southern Alabama and Mississippi into parts of Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the system and issue updated forecasts as new information becomes available.
